BOZEMAN — High pressure centered over the central and southern U.S. will stretch a ridge toward the Northern Rockies, keeping this general pattern in place through much of the week.
Starting Tuesday, southerly to southwesterly winds will push ample monsoonal moisture across the area, bringing a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of days. Wednesday could see heavy rainfall as slow-moving storms move through, bringing a risk for flash flooding, especially over southwest Montana. Areas near burn scars, steep mountain slopes, and urban locations should be prepared.
The risk for severe weather Wednesday and Thursday looks to be more favorable farther north where instability will be greater. Strong wind gusts will be possible.
By Friday, a transition to drier zonal flow will push moisture south and east of the region. Lingering moisture will still be sufficient to trigger another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Friday, though coverage will be more limited and the threat for excessive rainfall will drop significantly. However, gusty westerly winds will re-emerge as temperatures continue to trend hotter. Models keep much of the moisture south of the area across the weekend, with hot and generally dry conditions expected. Heat risks will be on the rise, so be prepared if you plan to be outdoors. Stay hydrated, wear sunscreen, and limit your time outside.
With the hotter temperatures and breezy conditions, fire weather concerns will also be elevated this weekend, especially for those areas that didn't get much rain during the week.
-Meteorologist Miller Robson
