BOZEMAN – Crazy weather pattern over the next 3 days. Unseasonably dry and warm today with max temperatures shooting up into the 70s and a few lower 80s. A SW flow aloft associated with a High-pressure ridge is the reason for the warm conditions.
Up next, is a Pacific cold front. This front will help add lift to the atmosphere and stronger thunderstorms could develop Friday afternoon.
The Storm Prediction Center has a “marginal” risk for severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon and early evening from Ennis to Big Sky to Bozeman to Livingston.
This means some thunderstorms could be strong enough to produce damage with either large hail or outflow wind gusts or both. Another concern is heavy rainfall. If heavy rain occurs on top of the Bridger Foothills Fire burn scar flash flooding and debris flows are possible. If you live in the burn scar area you should monitor the weather very closely Friday and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.
Friday night a surface Low will develop and with colder air moving in behind the cold front Friday snow levels could fall down to the lower valley floor especially east of I-15. Bozeman could see several inches of snow on the ground by Saturday morning. Big Sky could see 4”-6” of snow by Saturday morning. Mountain passes will also pick up slushy snow accumulations Friday night and slow go travel for early Saturday morning.
Most of the snow should melt away by Saturday afternoon. Another round of rain or snow is coming Sunday into Monday.