BOZEMAN — Daily thunderstorm chances continue across southwest Montana through Saturday, with periods of heavy rain, strong winds, and hail possible. Conditions trend warmer this weekend, while storm chances decrease briefly before a more typical summer pattern returns next week.
TODAY
Southwest Montana remains under a warm, moist, and unstable southwest flow pattern. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop during the evening, though the strongest storms are expected to remain north of the region. Any storm that develops locally could still produce gusty winds, small hail, brief heavy rainfall, and dangerous lightning.
THURSDAY
Thursday brings the greatest concern for impactful weather this week. A stronger disturbance moving through the region will support more widespread showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Severe storms will be possible, with large hail and damaging wind gusts the primary threats.
Very moist conditions will also support heavy rainfall, creating an increased risk of flash flooding, particularly near the Horse Gulch Burn Scar and in urban or poor-drainage areas. Storms may begin as isolated cells before organizing into clusters or lines during the evening.
FRIDAY
Unsettled conditions persist with another round of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. While storm coverage may be somewhat less organized than Thursday, the atmosphere will remain capable of producing strong storms with localized heavy rainfall, hail, and gusty winds. Burn scars and flood-prone locations should continue to be monitored for rapid runoff.
SATURDAY
The moist monsoonal pattern remains in place, supporting continued thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. Some storms may again become strong to severe, producing hail, strong wind gusts, and intense rainfall. Temperatures begin trending warmer, reaching above normal levels across lower elevations.
SUNDAY
A transition toward drier weather develops as the upper-level low lifts northeast and pushes the deepest moisture east of the region. Most of southwest Montana will see fewer storms, though an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm remains possible. Temperatures continue warming, with many valleys reaching the 90s.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY
Above-normal temperatures continue under a "dirty ridge" pattern, meaning more clouds than you might expect. Highs in lower elevations remain well into the 80s and 90s. While moisture levels are expected to be lower than this week's values, afternoon and evening thunderstorms will gradually return as weak disturbances move through the region. Storm coverage should be less widespread, but localized gusty winds, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall will remain possible.
