Is this the week that B & B boys — Beto and Biden — finally get in?
That’s the question on the mind of the collective political world as we look to the week ahead. The former vice president and the boy wonder Senate candidate out of Texas are the two major figures still hovering over the 2020 Democratic presidential race as it begins to take full shape. Both men seem to be edging ever closer to running, but as the race begins to pick up real momentum, their go/no go decisions are becoming more urgent.
Below, more on Biden, Beto and the other big 2020 storylines that you need to stay on top of this week.
1. Biden time?
A pair of headlines — one from The New York Times and the other from the Associated Press — tell the story of where the former Veep’s candidacy stands right now. “Joe Biden’s 2020 Plan Is Almost Complete. Democrats Are Impatient,” reads the Times headline. “Biden eyes fundraising challenge amid new sense of urgency,” reads the AP’s.
The stories tell the same, uh, story. Biden is so, so, so very close to running. But he hasn’t totally, completely made up his mind. (He spent time this past week in St. Croix with his family, theoretically making up his mind.)
If he runs, Biden starts the race as its frontrunner — thanks to his name ID and the broadly positive feelings the party still has about him after eight years as Barack Obama’s second-in-command.
The issue for Biden is whether his first day in the race is his best day in the race. Whether it’s his ability to match small-dollar donors with the likes of Bernie Sanders — and O’Rourke — or concerns that the party isn’t thrilled with the idea of nominating a 76-year-old white man, there ARE concerns. And they will only grow if Biden continues to hem and haw.
Maybe Biden will drop more hints — or make more clear if his mind is made up — when he addresses the International Association of Fire Fighters on Tuesday in Washington.
2. Beto’s “big” announcement
The Beto people are hinting very strongly that this might be the week he gets into the race. “If you’re on the edge of your seat about Beto’s decision around a potential 2020 run for president, you’re not alone,” wrote his deputy campaign manager in a fundraising email to supporters on Saturday. “But since you’re someone who supported Beto’s run for Senate, I wanted to invite you to be first to hear Beto’s big announcement.” (And the Beto documentary — produced by HBO — premiered Saturday at South by Southwest in Austin, Texas; it’s on HBO in late May.)
O’Rourke is actually overdue — according to his own timeline — for an announcement about his future. He said that he would make his mind up by the end of February, but the only thing he announced then was that he wasn’t going to run for Senate against John Cornyn (R) in 2020.
The shock, at this point, would be if Beto decided to bail on 2020. Reports out of New Hampshire suggest his top aides are already scouting staffing talent in the Granite State, which you don’t do if you are planning to just keep writing Medium posts about your random journeys through the American southwest.
3. Who “wins” the CNN Town Halls?
On Sunday, CNN is hosting three back-to-back-to-back town halls at South By Southwest. Former Maryland Rep. John Delaney kicks things off followed by Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard and then South Bend (Ind.) Mayor Pete Buttigieg.
While all three are decidedly second-tier (or lower) candidates, this exposure — national TV audience etc. — will help them. A single moment in the town halls — an effective answer, a powerful personal anecdote etc. — for any of these three could get replayed over and over in the coming days. A strong overall performance could lead a Democratic electorate that is quite clearly still looking around for candidates to take a second (or, probably, a first) look at them.
My guess for who’s most likely to benefit? Buttigieg. He’s young. He has a remarkable personal story — Rhodes scholar, military veteran, the first openly gay candidate to run for a major party’s nomination — and tells it well. Buttigieg’s combination of low expectations in this race and natural ability make him the likeliest breakout star of the weekend.
4. Amy Klobuchar’s laughter-is-the-best-medicine strategy
I’ve made no secret of my belief that Minnesota’s Klobuchar has a real chance of being the nominee. Which is why her answer — in a conversation with ReCode’s Kara Swisher in Austin on Saturday — about how she will deal with President Donald Trump’s attacks intrigued me.
“I will use humor,” she said, adding that in response to Trump’s mocking of her snow-filled announcement, she would respond: “You know what I’d like to see how your hair will work in a blizzard, Mr. Umbrella Man.”
That’s an intriguing approach. And easier said than done. Trump, as his 2016 Republican rivals learned, is the world’s best schoolyard bully. His nicknames, his taunts, his willingness to go lower than you all work to coarsen the discourse. And Trump wins when things get nasty. (Remember those two days when Sen. Marco Rubio mocked Trump’s hand size during the 2016 race? I didn’t end well for “Little Marco.”)
Klobuchar seems to be pitching a sunnier humor, making fun of Trump in lighthearted ways that get under his skin without earning her condemnation. I’m very interested to see if she can pull it off.
5. Meanwhile, Bernie’s not in Austin….
Even as many of his competitors for the 2020 nomination were wooing “influencers” — whatever that means — at South by Southwest, Bernie Sanders was making a series of stops in New Hampshire — Keene and Concord, to be specific. (Side note: The state capitol building in Concord is so beautiful; schedule a stop if you are ever anywhere near it. You won’t regret it.)
For Sanders, who has to be thrilled with the early fundraising and overall excitement around his second bid for president, New Hampshire is an absolute must-win if he wants to be the nominee. Sanders crushed Hillary Clinton in the state in 2016 by more than 20 points — and he retains a sort of (almost) home-state appeal there.
Most recent polling shows Sanders in solid shape. The Granite State Poll — conducted by the University of New Hampshire — showed him leading he field with 26% followed by Biden at 22%. California Sen. Kamala Harris — 10% — was the only other candidate to break into double digits.
Sanders will lavish New Hampshire with visits between now and next February. Without a win there, his chances of being the nominee are 0%.
